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Market outlook 2024-2026

In November 2023, Bouwinvest published its Dutch Market Outlook 2024-2026. In this document, you will find more detailed insight into macro trends, real estate market conditions and expectations for the years ahead.

Key trend

Impact real estate market

Portfolio management

Demographic and social changes



Higher demand in urban areas results in bigger housing shortage

Focus on Holland Metropole Alliance & Zwolle, Arnhem, Nijmegen

Higher than anticipated household growth (11.7% until 2042)

Pressure on prices (rental and owner-occupier markets)

Focus on lifecycle-proof apartments & family homes in mid-rental locations

Immigration is main driver of growth in population (but is more volatile)

More fluctuation in demand for rental homes because of more volatile migration


Ageing & smaller households

Growth of qualitative housing shortage

Focus on one and two-bedroom apartments

Peaking interest rates & stubborn inflation


Market in search of a new price equilibrium

Yield shift on the investment market

Attractive product, able to respond to possible redemption requests

Loan increase & lower unemployment

Bifurcation on the owner-occupier market on price range and asset quality

Identifying and focus on assets that fully meet strategy (standing and acquisitions)


Number of new-build projects is diminishing


Resulting in bigger housing shortage in short term and higher demand for rental housing


Affordability and regulation


Affordability (and housing shortage) is a growing social problem to which government responds through new (rental) regulation

Less supply and high demand in the mid-rental segment

Balancing cost control and affordability tenants


Higher demand and market rental growth for residential assets just above the new threshold

Focus on (low) mid-rental segment on the acquisition side and within Fund's portfolio (low and high mid-rental segment)


Negative impact on rent due to regulation

Optimisation by divestments in the event of large deviations between market rent and regulated rent


High-quality portfolio is less vulnerable to possible new regulation due to high number of WWS points

Sustainability and responsibility


Strict sustainability requirements

Increasing yield spread between green and brown assets

Integrated Paris proof ambition in the maintenance cycle    


Reducing environmental impact