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Market outlook 2024-2026

In November 2023, Bouwinvest published its Dutch Market Outlook 2024-2026. In this document, you will find more detailed insight into macro trends, real estate market conditions and expectations for the years ahead.

Key trend

Impact real estate market

Portfolio management

Demographic and social changes


Online shopping

Growth online shopping leads to fewer stores, consolidation and polarisation

Focus on Experience (G15), Convenience and Mixed retail (<10%) with long-term perspective

Urbanisation and polarisation

Population growth confined to largest cities and number of new districts in regional cities

Tighten criteria for Convenience assets: future dominance more important than ever

Ageing population

Retailers and shopping centres need to address ageing of average catchment areas

On a tactical/operational level: Lease attention for tenants who respond to an ageing population and upgrading shopping centres to make them age-friendly

Peaking interest rates & persistent inflation


Market in search of a new price equilibrium

Temporary yield shifts on the investment market

Continue to focus on assets that meet Experience strategy

Convenience market able to handle inflation

Convenience: market rent increase substantially offsets yield shift

Continue to focus on assets that meet Convenience strategy

Affordability and regulation


Increased cost of retailing

Retailers need to deal with increased costs of retailing, including deferred tax debt, leading to potential increase in bankruptcies and further consolidation

Focus on strong, distinctive retailers to maintain stable income return

Online retailers eyeing changes in return policies

Increasing share of online retailers are re-assessing their free return policies (high costs, unsustainable), possibly leading to extra return charges and thus favouring traditional stores.

Preference for multichannel brand stores

Sustainability and responsibility


Focus investors on sustainable retail properties

Increasing yield spread between green and brown retail assets

Build a future-proof and sustainable portfolio

Growing awareness among tenants of total cost of leasing

Increasing demand for energy-efficient stores

Focus on asset upgrades, including improving sustainability