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Market outlook 2024-2026

In November 2023, Bouwinvest published its Dutch Market Outlook 2024-2026. In this document, you will find more detailed insight into macro trends, real estate market conditions and expectations for the years ahead.

Key trend

Impact real estate market

Portfolio management

Demographic and social changes


Effect of growth working from home (WFH) outweighs office employment growth

Total office employment grows slightly until 2031, but is outweighed by impact of WFH

Invest in sustainable and accessible assets at dynamic A locations in core regions

Continuing urbanisation & polarisation

As a result, increased office vacancy mid-long term

Offer flexibility to tenants (lease term and flexible, shared and multi-use spaces)


Especially at secondary/tertiary sites (lower demand and necessary investments riskier)

Invest in the most attractive big cities

Peaking interest rates & stubborn inflation


Market in search of a new price equilibrium in uncertain times

Yield shift on the investment market

Targeted acquisitions with remaining commitments of > € 200 million within current fund strategy


Core assets hardest hit by interest rate hikes, but best positioned regarding future demand


Affordability and regulation


Enforcement ‘C Label’ regulation

Increased sustainability requirements lead to tier 2 offices disappearing from stock

Focus on improvement of ESG

Working from home ensures quality impulse offices

WFH offers companies the option of renting less m² at a better location at the same/lower rent and increases the appeal to staff

Increase the distinctiveness of assets through ESG investments, offering services, facilities and flexibility to tenants and branding

Sustainability and responsibility


Focus on sustainable & healthy office buildings surging

Increasing yield spread between green and brown assets

Raise the bar for ESG, including tenant health and well-being


Occupiers will increasingly look at total cost of leasing (rent + energy + services)

Collect and monitor data for targeted ESG actions and asset analyses based on total occupier cost perspective


Occupiers and landlords need to adapt to higher standards for office locations and office quality to maintain appeal to staff

Promote and increase financial benefit of sustainable offices for users


Develop valuation of ESG